![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcTQyUyTXgBdl3tIUhkQhPW22fN29HpjihcjpdNGdj22xvwDnzMouB8HI4torbFbMeeveEzYccEczRU4TDy9pJyoeXfpBENgt6TuGsBPLSXgHpine6NLA_WcUzKohxOU000I0syWbQX74/s400/mpol-jp-rates.gif)
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMko0pUPBPZFvNSmB4Q4KrfQqXKpnwYdeJldy4W1MQeKlDo8rxEyxxiWMpCwEtyfYgrlEb6lFfXEIOwPOG4FKxII4iLaeYyI_O97CTq_GC04JFoIQux5DO5hmxFQInhF-dCP2O7O8rv9w/s400/20060829japan1.jpg)
Here are the two graphs from today's lecture. The bottom one is the inflation rate, the salient point being that is has been negative, i.e., deflation, for quite a lot of the past 10 years. The top one shows the Bank of Japan's interest rate, which has hit zero (recall that a negative nominal interest rate isn't possible as people would be better off holding cash under their mattresses if necessary). Even at a zero nominal interest rate, negative expected inflation means that the real rate of interest is positive.
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